Trump vs Hillary : 5 reasons why Hillary would win
TRUMP vs HILLARY
Why would Hillary win ?
Reason #1: The Brexit Spectre. The nation is now properly frightened that Hillary might not win. Her recent dip in the polls has not only scared her supporters straight, but also--like a hangman’s noose around the neck--most likely focused the attention of those heretofore indifferent to the election’s outcome or so effete in their politics that only those who reflect the ideals they see when they sit in front of their morning vanity are worthy of their vote. Thanks to the disastrous Brexit vote, we all have a glaring example of what can happen when people take their voting responsibility lightly. I know from decades of watching sports that no good coach wants the team going into the big game overconfident. And I can tell from HRC herself that she rather welcomes her recent slide in the polls. The emails I get from her campaign daily have been riding the polling slump for all it’s worth…and I‘m going to guess that when her next fund raising numbers are announced we’re going to learn it was worth plenty. I can also tell from her first appearance after her pneumonia when, in her reply to a question about the tightening polls, she said that the election is going to come down to voter registration and get out the vote efforts. That shows that decades of electoral experience have not been wasted on her…she knows that being up or down in the polls at any time before election day means far less than who actually shows up to vote for you…and that brings us to…
Reason #2: The Ground Game. One of the most instructive political pieces I ever read appeared after the 2004 Democratic primary between John Kerry and Howard Dean. Going into the Iowa caucus Kerry was the establishment figure suffering under a severe “enthusiasm gap” to Dean who was the Bernie Sanders of the day, galvanizing the young, the independent, and progressive vote. The article detailed how Kerry flew in an experienced, nuts and bolts political strategist who put together a get out the vote effort that was far more damaging to Howard Dean’s chances than his so-called Dean Scream. That media gewgaw captured all the attention, and the diligent groundwork of the Kerry campaign was largely ignored. The media is fixated on sensational events and their impact on polling numbers, but making phone calls, registering voters and getting those voters to the polls really is determinative. Hillary’s campaign was good enough at that in 2008 to give Barack Obama a far tougher fight than Bernie Sanders gave her this year (despite Bernie's Trump-like, large, enthusiastic crowds). And now she has the cream of the Obama strategists working for her. A cursory look at the respective ground games between the two tells you all you need to know about where things are headed for Election Day. In swing states Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Clinton’s field offices number, respectively, 51, 38, and 30; Trump’s corresponding numbers: 2, 4 and 0! Experts say that a good ground game can make a 1-3 point difference in an election’s outcome, which is huge in a close race. (Anyone whose concern about a Trump presidency is limited to checking the daily polls and complaining about what Hillary is or isn't doing might want to call one of her field offices and offer to do more.)
Reason #2: The Ground Game. One of the most instructive political pieces I ever read appeared after the 2004 Democratic primary between John Kerry and Howard Dean. Going into the Iowa caucus Kerry was the establishment figure suffering under a severe “enthusiasm gap” to Dean who was the Bernie Sanders of the day, galvanizing the young, the independent, and progressive vote. The article detailed how Kerry flew in an experienced, nuts and bolts political strategist who put together a get out the vote effort that was far more damaging to Howard Dean’s chances than his so-called Dean Scream. That media gewgaw captured all the attention, and the diligent groundwork of the Kerry campaign was largely ignored. The media is fixated on sensational events and their impact on polling numbers, but making phone calls, registering voters and getting those voters to the polls really is determinative. Hillary’s campaign was good enough at that in 2008 to give Barack Obama a far tougher fight than Bernie Sanders gave her this year (despite Bernie's Trump-like, large, enthusiastic crowds). And now she has the cream of the Obama strategists working for her. A cursory look at the respective ground games between the two tells you all you need to know about where things are headed for Election Day. In swing states Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Clinton’s field offices number, respectively, 51, 38, and 30; Trump’s corresponding numbers: 2, 4 and 0! Experts say that a good ground game can make a 1-3 point difference in an election’s outcome, which is huge in a close race. (Anyone whose concern about a Trump presidency is limited to checking the daily polls and complaining about what Hillary is or isn't doing might want to call one of her field offices and offer to do more.)
Reason #3: The Economy Stupid (yet again). Barack Obama won handily in 2012 even though the pundits were predicting a razor thin margin either way. Obama went before the American voters in 2012 with a still ailing economy holding down his approval numbers and making him vulnerable, the experts thought, to a successful capitalist who promised to fix things with business savvy. At this point in that election Obama and Romney were tied in the polls. It remains a question whether Hillary can use the recent good economic news to her advantage…economics doesn’t explain well in an election (voters either feel good about the economy or they don’t). But she doesn’t have to defend sorry economic numbers as Obama did, plus she's facing a less reputable businessman. Obama's challenge was greater in beating Romney in 2012 …not to mention war hero McCain in 2008…but he was still able to pull out comfortable victories because the fundamentals of the electoral map so favor Democrats. It would take a historic breakdown in support for Hillary not to duplicate if not improve upon Obama’s vote totals.
Reason #4—The Competency Factor. The voters not only find Hillary qualified to be president, they find her opponent unqualified. Here’s just the latest evidence of it from just a few days ago:
Although Clinton seems to be facing a tight race with her rival Donald Trump, a new Quinnipiac University poll out Thursday seems to show that the American people agree with Obama’s testament to her qualifications. Sixty-two percent of likely voters say Clinton is qualified for the presidency while nearly the opposite amount — 61 percent — say Trump is not, the poll shows.
All the attention of course has been on the fact that Hillary has a trust problem with voters. In one of the most astonishing through-the-looking-glass episodes in American political history, voters believe that Trump, a congenital and conspicuous liar, is more honest than she is. But here’s the thing, voters already expect politicians to lie…it's baked into their perception of politics and one of the main reasons they hate politics so much. So, fair or not, HRC can survive the trust issue in this election. Trump, on the other hand, cannot survive his unqualified problem. And that problem will be exacerbated the closer we get to Election Day as the Clinton campaign no doubt bombards him with ads featuring well-known Republicans who have already endorsed her and declared him unqualified. I’ve already addressed the likability vs. competency argument in an earlier post, so no need to rehash here, except to say it defies all logic to believe the nation is going to put anyone in charge that the majority of citizens finds unqualified to be in charge.
Reason #5: The Debate Aftermath. There is general consensus that Hillary should “win” the debates through her breadth of experience and knowledge. But winning debates is the quicksilver of American politics. John Kerry reputedly won all his debates over George W. Bush in 2004; Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama in their first debate in 2012. Hillary will win just by showing up looking hale and hearty and holding her ground for 90 minutes. That will be enough to supplant the public image of her crumbling into her van after the 9/11 ceremony a few weeks ago. The public can hardly be blamed given how much the media replayed that clip (including, regrettably, Stephen Colbert who ran it just for laughs many days later, raising the question: is there any difference between Trump mocking a reporter's medical condition and a celebrity mocking a politician's medical condition?) That incident coincided with her slip in the polls. By all accounts this will be one of the most watched events in television history, and subsequently one of the most analyzed. Because the media finally seem to have caught on to how well Trump has played it over the past year, chances are it’ll be working to regain its integrity during and after the debate. Mature and responsible media coverage heading into Election Day will greatly benefit the mature and responsible candidate over the con artist.
sources : http://www.dailykos.com/
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